Canada: Headline inflation likely to firm to 1.9% in March - TDS

TD Securities analysts are looking for the Canadian headline inflation to firm to 1.9% y/y in March, in line with the market consensus, with prices up 0.7% for the second consecutive month.

Key Quotes

“Gasoline prices are the main catalyst for the monthly print, given an 11% increase at the pump, while other one-offs (airfares, telecoms, rent) should provide another source of upside. Our base-case is for core measures to remain stable at 1.83% on average but we see modest upside risks to CPI-trim and median.”

“International trade for February will be published alongside CPI; TD looks for the deficit to widen a touch to $4.4bn, while the market looks for an improvement to $3.25bn.”