US: Focus on NFP this week – NBF

In view of analysts at National Bank Financial, the most important piece of news for the US markets this week will be non-farm payrolls for March.

Key Quotes

“Jobless claims edged lower in the month, pointing to a very low rate of layoffs. Hiring, meanwhile, may have rebounded nicely from the prior month’s frigid pace. Accordingly, we’re calling for a +180K print. The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay put at 3.8% if, as we believe, the household survey shows a modest increase in employment.”

“Still in March, the ISM manufacturing index could have decreased slightly, in line with the losses recorded by Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the month.”

“The February retail sales report will also come out. Both headline and ex-auto retail sales should have continued on their upward trend, boosted by decent auto sales and the first rise in seasonally-adjusted pump prices since October. Durable goods orders for February will also be available, with a retreat expected based on the decline observed in civilian plane orders.”

“We’ll keep an eye on the release of several other February indicators, including consumer credit and construction spending.”