When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for March is slated for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to rise slightly to 98.7 versus 98.5 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is seen weaker at 102.9 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 94.0 in the reported month vs. 93.8 last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

 How could affect EUR/USD?

The spot looks to test the 1.1250 psychological level on downbeat IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could rebound to 1.1335-50 levels on a positive surprise.  

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “A follow-through weakness below Friday's swing low, around the 1.1275-70 region, will further reinforce the bearish set-up and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall further towards the 1.1220-15 intermediate support en-route the 1.1200 handle. On the flip side, the 1.1330-35 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance and is followed by the 1.1365-70 area, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards surpassing the 1.1400 round figure mark.”

Key Notes

Markets: German IFO and NZ trade balance in focus – TDS

EUR/USD is tilted to the downside in short term – Danske Bank

EUR futures: further rangebound likely

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).