7 May 2014
Australian retail sales with risk to disappoint - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, shared his take on today's AUD risk event - Aus retail sales - due at 1.30 GMT, expecting the outcome to miss market consensus.
Key Quotes
"Australia’s data calendar has some potential to move AUD: March retail sales. Retail turnover rose by at least 0.5% each month from Aug 2013 to Jan 2014, an encouraging trend."
"Feb’s modest 0.2% gain could be seen as consolidation and consensus is for 0.4%, which would be a strong outcome, 5.3% y/y. Westpac looks for a moderate correction, -0.2% m/m."
"This should be no cause for alarm but it is the equal lowest forecast in a range to as high as 0.7%. So a negative headline for Mar would cause some damage to AUD, perhaps 30 pips."
"Also due is the Q1 inflation-adjusted sales number, which we see up 1.5% q/q, just short of 1.6% consensus."
"Markets are likely to be sensitive to any sign that the Australian consumer was already becoming cautious before April talk of an income tax/levy in next week’s Budget knocked confidence."
"The Asian calendar is likely to have little impact: the China HSBC services PMI (no forecast), Taiwan Apr trade balance and Malaysian Mar trade."
"Fed chair Yellen testifies to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. Recall it was Bernanke’s appearance at this forum last May that sparked a wave of volatility when he talked about kicking off QE ‘tapering’ later in 2013. We doubt USD will enjoy any new support on Yellen’s appearance."
Key Quotes
"Australia’s data calendar has some potential to move AUD: March retail sales. Retail turnover rose by at least 0.5% each month from Aug 2013 to Jan 2014, an encouraging trend."
"Feb’s modest 0.2% gain could be seen as consolidation and consensus is for 0.4%, which would be a strong outcome, 5.3% y/y. Westpac looks for a moderate correction, -0.2% m/m."
"This should be no cause for alarm but it is the equal lowest forecast in a range to as high as 0.7%. So a negative headline for Mar would cause some damage to AUD, perhaps 30 pips."
"Also due is the Q1 inflation-adjusted sales number, which we see up 1.5% q/q, just short of 1.6% consensus."
"Markets are likely to be sensitive to any sign that the Australian consumer was already becoming cautious before April talk of an income tax/levy in next week’s Budget knocked confidence."
"The Asian calendar is likely to have little impact: the China HSBC services PMI (no forecast), Taiwan Apr trade balance and Malaysian Mar trade."
"Fed chair Yellen testifies to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. Recall it was Bernanke’s appearance at this forum last May that sparked a wave of volatility when he talked about kicking off QE ‘tapering’ later in 2013. We doubt USD will enjoy any new support on Yellen’s appearance."