When is the US CPI and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US February CPI Overview

Today's US economic docket highlights the release of the latest consumer inflation figures, due for release later during the early North-American session at 12:30GMT. The headline CPI is anticipated to tick higher by 0.2% m/m in February and the yearly rate is seen stabilizing at 1.6%. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is anticipated to rise 0.2% m/m during the reported month, same as in January, and also hold steady at .% y/y. 

According to analysts at TD Securities: “Price pressures will benefit higher food and gasoline prices and another solid 0.2% increase in core CPI, leaving the latter unchanged at 2.2% y/y. There is risk for a slight deceleration in shelter, but we expect strength elsewhere, including tariff-related categories, medical care and airfares.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below and as observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of +0.98 to -0.98 in the core CPI print is likely to be in the range of 26-25 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to 55-71 pips in the following 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to watch out for: “Immediate resistance is at 1.1285 that was a swing low last week, just before the crash. 1.1310 was another swing low previous week and 1.1325 capped euro/dollar before the fall. 1.1350 is where the 200-SMA meets the price.”

“Support awaits at 1.1245 that was a temporary bump on the way up, followed by the February low of 1.1235 and 1.1220 that was a support line before the recent recovery. The 2019 low of 1.1176,” he added further.

Key Notes

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About the US CPI

The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).