France: Encouraging 4Q employment numbers - ING

Julien Manceaux, senior economist at ING, points out that the unemployed population was 3.4 million people in mainland France in the fourth quarter, implying a further decline in the number of unemployed, by 16,500 in the fourth quarter.

Key Quotes

“In total, the year 2018 saw a drop of 44,300 for the main unemployed category (A), or 1.3% over one year.”

“Despite the slight rise in the number of occasional unemployed, the population around unemployment (DARES categories A to E) fell by 54,800 in 2018, for the first time in more than 10 years. Indeed, since the beginning of the crisis, this population has been increasing each year. The recent drop can be seen as an effect of the acceleration in growth in 2017. At a time when growth seems to be back to its trend level, we expect a further slight decline in the unemployed population in 2019, which should allow the unemployment rate to continue decreasing.”

“If the unemployment rate declines in the last quarter of 2018 to 8.7% in mainland France, it could potentially rebound slightly in the first quarter.”