EUR/USD: Fairly limited downside - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD continues to ease lower towards the 1.1332 uptrend and the market is currently pretty neutral, but they suspect that the downside is now fairly limited.

Key Quotes

“Dips lower should be contained by the 200 week ma at 1.1326 and the 2016-2019 uptrend at 1.1306. We favour a recovery to the 1.1591/1.1623 200 day ma and mid October high and slightly longer term we target 1.1772, the 55 week ma.”

“Failure at 1.1267 will trigger losses to the 1.1216 recent low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Please note that we continue to regard the 1.1216 recent low as an interim low for the market.”

“Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1625 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1795 back on the cards.”