28 Apr 2014
AUD: Sixth consecutive weekly increase in net longs - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ FX Strategy Team notes that the positioning data for the week ending 22 April 2014 provided little changes, suggesting lack of conviction by traders.
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds have increased their net short positions against the USD to their highest level since January 2013. While speculators remain bearish on the USD, we note that positioning is now at a level which has marked the bottom on three previous occasions. On those occasions, short positions were reduced and the DXY rallied. With the data calendar this week packed with key US data/event risk (Q1 GDP, FOMC, ISM and payrolls), positive surprises could see a repeat as short USD positions get unwound."
"AUD saw the largest increase in net long positions, up by 8.9k contracts (worth USD0.8bn) taking overall positioning to 27.2k. This is the sixth consecutive weekly increase in net long positions, taking it to the highest level since late April 2013. The last time positioning was this high, AUD was trading above parity. However, the positioning cut-off date was prior to the release of weaker than expected Australia CPI data, which resulted in a weakening of the AUD. Some reduction of AUD long positions likely resulted since."
"GBP net long positions continue to rise to record highs. For the week, leveraged funds added another 4.1k contracts (worth USD0.5bn) to take overall positioning to 127.7k. EUR net long positions were only reduced slightly despite increased rhetoric by ECB officials about the impact of a high euro on inflation."
"The net long non-commercial position in gold fell by 2.9k contracts to 110.7k as the gold price reached a closing low of USD1,283/oz. There was no pick-up in speculative shorting activity during the week with gross non-commercial shorts staying constant at 52.3k contracts, while profit-taking saw gross non-commercial long positions decline to 163k, a four-month low. Net long positions in crude oil fell by 10.5k contracts to 430.3k."
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds have increased their net short positions against the USD to their highest level since January 2013. While speculators remain bearish on the USD, we note that positioning is now at a level which has marked the bottom on three previous occasions. On those occasions, short positions were reduced and the DXY rallied. With the data calendar this week packed with key US data/event risk (Q1 GDP, FOMC, ISM and payrolls), positive surprises could see a repeat as short USD positions get unwound."
"AUD saw the largest increase in net long positions, up by 8.9k contracts (worth USD0.8bn) taking overall positioning to 27.2k. This is the sixth consecutive weekly increase in net long positions, taking it to the highest level since late April 2013. The last time positioning was this high, AUD was trading above parity. However, the positioning cut-off date was prior to the release of weaker than expected Australia CPI data, which resulted in a weakening of the AUD. Some reduction of AUD long positions likely resulted since."
"GBP net long positions continue to rise to record highs. For the week, leveraged funds added another 4.1k contracts (worth USD0.5bn) to take overall positioning to 127.7k. EUR net long positions were only reduced slightly despite increased rhetoric by ECB officials about the impact of a high euro on inflation."
"The net long non-commercial position in gold fell by 2.9k contracts to 110.7k as the gold price reached a closing low of USD1,283/oz. There was no pick-up in speculative shorting activity during the week with gross non-commercial shorts staying constant at 52.3k contracts, while profit-taking saw gross non-commercial long positions decline to 163k, a four-month low. Net long positions in crude oil fell by 10.5k contracts to 430.3k."