US: Focus on consumer expectations and budget - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura suggests that the inflation expectations in the NY Fed’s survey remain within a steady range with both the one-year and three-year ahead expected inflation holding at 3.00% in September.

Key Quotes

“Other indicators in the survey support an outlook for favorable consumer spending with elevated earnings growth expectations and a favorable evaluation of the labor market.”

“Budget: October’s budget statement marks the beginning of FY19 where we expect the budget deficit to widen further after increasing markedly in FY18. Of particular interest in October will be the pattern of government defense spending as fiscal policy remains a key driver of US growth.”