India: Politics to remain in focus in the near term – Nomura

In India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) traditional hold over the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will be put to test on 11 December, when state election results are due, according to analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“Notwithstanding their patchy predictive record, opinion polls suggest that the BJP will manage to stave off the opposition in Madhya Pradesh, fail to do so in Rajasthan, but show no clear frontrunner in Chhattisgarh. Hence, the state election results will be a mixed bag for the BJP.”

“Historical analysis suggests that state election results should not be extrapolated for the prediction of a general election. In the past, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in Lok Sabha (Lower House) elections, while voters in Rajasthan have been less consistent.”

“So while it remains more likely that two out of these three states will vote for the BJP in general elections regardless of their state election outcome, the state election results should at least take the pulse of public opinion as to the extent to which the mood of the nation still favours the ruling BJP government.”