US: Incoming Data Point to Strong Q3 GDP – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura now expect US Q3 real GDP to increase 3.7% q-o-q saar following a 4.2% gain in Q2 as much of the growth in Q3 was likely driven by a strong contribution from volatile changes in inventories.

Key Quotes

“Our tracking estimate of the contribution to real GDP growth from final sales, stripping out inventory accumulation, is 1.2pp, consistent with a contribution from changes in inventories (CIPI) of 2.5pp.”

“We expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.9% q-o-q saar in Q4 as the recent surge in equipment investment continues to taper and a sharp rebound in CIPI in Q3 reverts. That said, fiscal stimulus should remain supportive for growth and the strong labor market along with tax cuts will likely continue to boost consumer spending which has remained strong during Q3.”