Russia: CBR to keep its Key Rate on hold at 7.5% - TDS

In line with the unanimous consensus, analysts at TD Securities expect the CBR to keep its Key Rate on hold at 7.5% at Friday's Board meeting.

Key Quotes

“Since the September meeting, when the CBR surprised the markets by hiking by 25bps, the ruble has appreciated by about 4% against the US dollar. Although CPI inflation has risen to 3.4% Y/Y in September from a prior 3.1%, this is more or less in line with the CBR's projections. Therefore, we see no pressing need for the CBR to hike. Future CBR rate moves will depend on the performance of the ruble, with the possibility of the US imposing further sanctions crucial in this respect.”