Canada: Data suggests GDP should not be stellar in August - NBF

According to National Bank of Canada’s analyst Kyle Dahms, lackluster retail numbers countrywide coupled with an earlier reported weakness for shipments in the month, suggests GDP should not be stellar in August.

Key Quotes:

“Canadian retail sales disappointed consensus expectations in August, edging down 0.1% m/m in nominal terms to C$50.8 billion.”

“Canadian retail sales came in below consensus expectations in August. Falling outlays at gasoline stations, caused entirely by a drop in volumes, accounted for a significant portion of the decline.”

“The lackluster retail numbers countrywide coupled with an earlier reported weakness for shipments in the month suggest GDP should not be stellar in August. On a quarterly basis, growth in real retail sales appear to be fading. True, after having expanded 3.5% in the second quarter, retail spending growth may have been no better than 0.9% annualized in Q3. This could translate into a weaker contribution to growth from goods consumption in the third quarter.”