Poland: Sound 3Q GDP despite weaker industrial activity – ING

Jakub Rybacki, Economist at ING, notes that the Poland’s industrial production disappointed in September, slowing from 5% to 2.8% year-on-year (consensus at 4.1%).

Key Quotes

“According to estimates from the statistics office GUS, this is consistent with a modest acceleration from 5% to 5.4% YoY after seasonal and working day adjustments.”

“We expect September to be the last month when seasonally-adjusted growth exceeds 5% YoY. Given a worsening of sentiment in nearly all surveys (e.g. GUS, National Bank of Poland and Markit PMI polls) we forecast a slowdown of IP growth from 6% in 3Q18 to 3% YoY in 4Q18.”

“Despite a negative surprise from the September data, we still see GDP growth close to 5% YoY in 3Q18. However, a slowdown should occur in 4Q18– we forecast growth of 4.2% YoY.”