US: Q3 real GDP tracking estimate raised to 3.7% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the net impact of the US PPI report and final wholesale inventories data on our Q3 real GDP tracking was net positive.

Key Quotes

“We raised our Q3 real GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to 3.7% q-o-q saar. The PPI for real estate brokerage fees increased more strongly than we expected, suggesting less of a real contribution from residential investment to real GDP growth.”

“Also, the PPI for capital equipment for manufacturing industries also advanced more than we expected, implying less of a real contribution from private equipment investment. By contrast, the PPIs for intermediate processed goods and final motor vehicles rose less than we expected.”

“Moreover, the final wholesale inventories report revised up inventory growth in September. These numbers suggest a stronger contribution from the real change in private inventories and offset weaker contributions from business equipment and residential investment.”