Fed to invert the curve if core inflation drops below 2.0% again - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank explained that last week, they added a fourth rate hike, in December, to their Fed call for 2018. 

Key Quotes:

• FOMC to end its hiking cycle after the yield curve inverts in 2019 - Rabobank

"One scenario would be a single hike by the Fed in the first quarter of 2019, which could invert the curve if core inflation drops below 2.0% again or if the global outlook depresses the longer end of the US treasury yield curve. Given our downbeat global outlook, we expect the latter to be the most likely scenario.

Therefore, our baseline scenario is a single hike in March 2019, followed by an inversion of the curve (2-10 spread) in Q2.

The latter would lead to a pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle, because the FOMC would interpret this as a sign that monetary policy is mildly restrictive. In contrast, we think that this will be the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle as recession risk becomes elevated. The inversion would signal a recession in the fall of 2020.

At present, the risk to our baseline scenario seems tilted to the upside. The yield curve may invert later than we now expect and that would also delay the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle. Therefore our main risk scenario is a second hike by the Fed in June, followed by an inversion, and the end of the hiking cycle."