15 Apr 2014
AUD/USD potential upside to 0.9650 - ANZ
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research, Asia at ANZ, observes the likeliness of AUD/USD to extend the bull run to 0.9650.
Key Quotes
"AUD/USD did not post a close below 0.9210 in early April, so the uptrend was not broken. The uptrend has now extended through the standard retracement levels based off the AUD’s slide from October’s 0.9760 high (61.8% was at 0.9335)"
"This implies that a more pronounced base than anticipated may have formed off January’s 0.8655-60 low. Therefore, there is now an increased potential for larger scale retracements into the 0.9585- 0.9650 area (see Figure 4).Despite this burgeoning shift in longer-term patterns, the current squeeze from the 0.8900 area in March shows signs of being stretched"
"Daily momentum appears to be peaking, but, as highlighted with respect to NZD/USD, that does not necessarily mean an imminent trend break. That said, the risk of a turn in the near-term trend and the potential for some pronounced retracements need to be addressed.Dips ought to hold above 0.9360 to maintain the uptrend and also potential for further extensions into the 0.95’s."
"Although a break of 0.9360 would be seen as a clear warning, a daily close below 0.9300 is needed to suggest that the trend has indeed turned in favour of retracements to at least the 0.9200 area, if not the favoured profile of frustrating (highly corrective) pullbacks into the 0.89-0.91 area"
"It should be noted that the extension of recent rebounds has altered the approach towards the January low.The profile of monthly momentum is not shown, but slippage into the deep retracement zone (0.8550-0.8675) occurred with some notable monthly divergence."
"A broad consolidation channel (see Figure 4) also effectively held, and a supportive turn in weekly momentum has developed off January’s 0.8655-60 low. Given that all the standard retracement levels based off the decline from 0.9760 (October 2013) have been broken, it appears that a more pronounced base has developed below 0.8750."
"In fact, current rebounds could be forming merely the initial leg of broader corrections to offset the slide from the 1.0600 area. Therefore,
especially if the current uptrend holds, AUD/USD could extend into the 0.9585-0.9650 area as part of a longerterm series of corrective rebounds off January’s low."
Key Quotes
"AUD/USD did not post a close below 0.9210 in early April, so the uptrend was not broken. The uptrend has now extended through the standard retracement levels based off the AUD’s slide from October’s 0.9760 high (61.8% was at 0.9335)"
"This implies that a more pronounced base than anticipated may have formed off January’s 0.8655-60 low. Therefore, there is now an increased potential for larger scale retracements into the 0.9585- 0.9650 area (see Figure 4).Despite this burgeoning shift in longer-term patterns, the current squeeze from the 0.8900 area in March shows signs of being stretched"
"Daily momentum appears to be peaking, but, as highlighted with respect to NZD/USD, that does not necessarily mean an imminent trend break. That said, the risk of a turn in the near-term trend and the potential for some pronounced retracements need to be addressed.Dips ought to hold above 0.9360 to maintain the uptrend and also potential for further extensions into the 0.95’s."
"Although a break of 0.9360 would be seen as a clear warning, a daily close below 0.9300 is needed to suggest that the trend has indeed turned in favour of retracements to at least the 0.9200 area, if not the favoured profile of frustrating (highly corrective) pullbacks into the 0.89-0.91 area"
"It should be noted that the extension of recent rebounds has altered the approach towards the January low.The profile of monthly momentum is not shown, but slippage into the deep retracement zone (0.8550-0.8675) occurred with some notable monthly divergence."
"A broad consolidation channel (see Figure 4) also effectively held, and a supportive turn in weekly momentum has developed off January’s 0.8655-60 low. Given that all the standard retracement levels based off the decline from 0.9760 (October 2013) have been broken, it appears that a more pronounced base has developed below 0.8750."
"In fact, current rebounds could be forming merely the initial leg of broader corrections to offset the slide from the 1.0600 area. Therefore,
especially if the current uptrend holds, AUD/USD could extend into the 0.9585-0.9650 area as part of a longerterm series of corrective rebounds off January’s low."