14 Apr 2014
NZD/USD outlook neutral this week - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at estpac, the NZD/USD outlook for this week in neutral.
Key Quotes
"The NZD’s uptrend remains intact but momentum is waning. Over the next month or two it has a decent chance of making a fresh post-float high (0.8843). US economic data continues to disappoint, in the process depressing the US dollar. Moreover, speculators continue to buy the NZD."
"However, near term momentum has slowed, warning a reversal may be nearby. Accordingly, we temper our bullish bias for the week ahead, expecting a neutral range of 0.8600-0.8750."
"This week’s NZ calendar key event will be the release of Q1 CPI. (Wed). We expect a 0.4% quarterly rise, leaving annual inflation unchanged at 1.6%. That would be close enough to the RBNZ’s own forecast of 1.7% to have no real implications for monetary policy. Other releases include food prices (Mon), services PMI (Tue), and monthly consumer confidence (Thu). Also closely watched will be the GDT dairy auction (Tue), any further declines in prices likely to weigh on the NZD."
"From the US calendar, March retail sales headlines, along with the first look at April activity trends (Empire, Philly and NAHB surveys). Consensus expectations are uniformly slanted toward firmer data across the calendar. The complexion of the data may indeed look firmer vs recent weather-depressed updates but the wiggle room for positive surprises appears to be very small. The week’s data may thus go the way of March payrolls - constructive but failing to beat expectations. The Fedspeak calendar includes two engagements for Chair Yellen (Tue and Wed)."
Key Quotes
"The NZD’s uptrend remains intact but momentum is waning. Over the next month or two it has a decent chance of making a fresh post-float high (0.8843). US economic data continues to disappoint, in the process depressing the US dollar. Moreover, speculators continue to buy the NZD."
"However, near term momentum has slowed, warning a reversal may be nearby. Accordingly, we temper our bullish bias for the week ahead, expecting a neutral range of 0.8600-0.8750."
"This week’s NZ calendar key event will be the release of Q1 CPI. (Wed). We expect a 0.4% quarterly rise, leaving annual inflation unchanged at 1.6%. That would be close enough to the RBNZ’s own forecast of 1.7% to have no real implications for monetary policy. Other releases include food prices (Mon), services PMI (Tue), and monthly consumer confidence (Thu). Also closely watched will be the GDT dairy auction (Tue), any further declines in prices likely to weigh on the NZD."
"From the US calendar, March retail sales headlines, along with the first look at April activity trends (Empire, Philly and NAHB surveys). Consensus expectations are uniformly slanted toward firmer data across the calendar. The complexion of the data may indeed look firmer vs recent weather-depressed updates but the wiggle room for positive surprises appears to be very small. The week’s data may thus go the way of March payrolls - constructive but failing to beat expectations. The Fedspeak calendar includes two engagements for Chair Yellen (Tue and Wed)."