India: A slowdown in GDP growth - ING

Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, points out that India’s GDP data for 1Q FY2018-19 (April-Jun quarter of 2018) is due next week and underlying their projected slowdown in GDP growth is a slowdown in manufacturing.

Key Quotes

“Export growth accelerated in the last quarter, though exports account for a small share of GDP (average 13% in the last five years). With an oil-led surge in imports and widening trade deficit, net exports have acted as a drag on GDP growth.”

“We forecast a GDP slowdown to 7% YoY in 1Q from 7.7% in the previous quarter, not a good start to the year, the rest of which will remain exposed to greater global economic uncertainty and rising domestic political risk.”