US: Expect a steady 0.4% increase in July core retail sales - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in US core retail sales for July.

Key Quotes

“Consumer fundamentals remained healthy and various business surveys displayed a favorable current outlook driven by firm domestic demand. While there is significant uncertainty, Amazon’s Prime Day sale, lasting six hours longer than last year’s 30-hour sale, poses some upside risk as monthly seasonal factors for retail sales are updated with a lag.”

“Elsewhere, we think lower retail gasoline prices likely reduced the receipts at gasoline stations. Moreover, we expect a solid increase in receipts at food service places.”

“Recently, consumer spending on food services has increased at a solid pace, likely driven by healthy consumer fundamentals. In addition, sales at autos and auto parts dealerships may have fallen notably considering the decline in WardsAuto’s total light vehicle sales report for July.”

“Excluding sales of autos, we forecast 0.5% m-o-m increase in retail sales. Altogether, we expect a modest 0.2% m-o-m increase in total retail sales.”