US: Expect an elevated reading of 21.0 for August Empire State survey - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting an elevated reading of 21.0 for August Empire State survey, down 1.6pp from July’s 22.6.

Key Quotes

“Trade-related concerns have weighed more on forward-looking indicators than on the current business conditions index. In July, the headline current business conditions measure eased somewhat, but was still above our and markets’ expectations.”

“We expect strong domestic activity to remain supportive for manufacturers’ optimistic assessment of current conditions, while trade concerns will continue to weigh on forward-looking indicators.”

“In particular, the six-month ahead capital expenditure index declined for two consecutive months. Continued escalation in trade tensions may contribute to further easing in this measure.”