India: Strong growth, but leading indicators suggest a slowdown ahead - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura suggest that their proprietary indicators suggest the inflection point for the cyclical recovery may just be around the corner for Indian economy.

Key Quotes

“High-frequency indicators suggest solid growth momentum in Q2, but our composite leading indicator has turned decisively down in Q3 after rising for six consecutive quarters, which supports our view that tighter financial conditions, slowing global growth and adverse terms of trade will start to constrain growth in H2 2018.”

“For now, strong core momentum, sticky global oil prices and higher minimum support prices suggest conditions are ripe for another 25bp rate hike in August. We expect a long pause on policy rates thereafter as growth and inflation slow.”