UK CPI to remain unchanged at 2.7 percent in March – Nomura

In the view of the analysts at Nomura, the UK headline inflation numbers are expected to remain flat in March, courtesy of a drop in fuel prices.

Key Quotes:

“While we forecast an unchanged CPI inflation reading of 2.7% in March, we think there are, if anything, downside risks to this view. We also expect RPI inflation to remain at 3.6%, implying a constant wedge between RPI and CPI inflation of around 0.9pp.

Lower petrol prices are offset elsewhere in our headline CPI forecast, with the result that core CPI inflation could rise modestly in March.

Both the CBI and PMI surveys of output price inflation showed some signs of slowing in March, though the balances remain at high levels. We think this is consistent with a 0.2% m-o- m rise in core prices.

We forecast flat headline prices thanks to a decline in petrol prices. Few changes in commodity prices or the currency in March suggest around a flat reading on input prices.”