EUR/USD still capped by 1.2323/39 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair remains capped by the 1.2323/39 band.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD remains capped by the 20 and 55 day moving averages at 1.2323/1.2339 and attention remains on the 1.2240 20th March low and the 1.2224 2017-2018 uptrend. The intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative. Very near term the market is holding a 5 month uptrend at 1.2257 and we may see a small rebound from here”.

“While above here, we remain unable to rule out a retest of the January and February highs at 1.2538/56 and the long term downtrend at 1.2622, but this is looking less likely”.

“This is made up of the mid-January and current March lows and the 2017-2018 uptrend. A weekly close below here would add weight to the idea that the market recently topped at 1.2556”.