US: Consumer confidence index still at elevated levels - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura note that the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 2.3 index points to a still-elevated 127.7 in March, below expectations (Nomura: 132.0, Consensus: 131.0).

Key Quotes

“Despite the decline, consumer optimism remains quite elevated due to the strengthening economy and solid job market. The labor index, the difference between those reporting jobs “plentiful” versus “hard to get”, improved further to 25.0, a positive sign for next week’s BLS March employment report release.”

“Expectations for the stock market continued to moderate in March, with only 35% of respondents expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, notably below the recent high of 51%.”

“Consumer spending plans also softened somewhat with declines in the share of respondents planning to buy major appliances, homes and autos. Q1 has been relatively weak in terms of consumer spending. However, we expect Q1’s weakness to largely be transitory and spending to grow steadily overall in 2018 due to a low unemployment rate and modest tax cuts.”