When are the UK Jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the number of people seeking jobless benefits decreased by 5.0k in the three months to February, compared to a drop of 7.2k booked in the three months to January.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4% during the period. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to Jan, are expected a tad higher at 2.6%, while ex-bonuses also, the wages are seen rising to 2.6% in the reported period.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 60 pips in deviations up to 2 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 85 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A bigger-than-expected drop in the claimant count numbers combined with higher average earnings could add extra legs to Cable’s rally, driving the rates back above 1.4050 levels. On a disappointing result, we could see the GBP/USD pair dropping towards 1.3950/30 support area.

Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, notes, “technically, the near-term bullish outlook remains until the pair manages to hold its neck above a short-term ascending trend-channel support, currently near the 1.3930 region. Sustained weakness below the mentioned support is likely to accelerate the fall towards 1.3850-45 intermediate zone en-route the 1.3810-1.3800 strong support.”

“On the flip side, 1.4035-40 area now seems to act as an immediate resistance, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 1.4100 handle, also coinciding with the trend-channel resistance,” Haresh adds.

Key Notes

UK Jobs Preview: Expect quarterly gain in employment of 85K – Capital Economics

UK jobs: Core earnings growth likely to accelerate mildly - Barclays

About UK jobs

The Claimant Change released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).