So what did we learn from the tariff proclamation today?

So what did we learn from the tariff proclamation today? ...

Not a lot and that's why stocks have continued higher after an initial drop on the announcements and leading into the event.

First, here are the key headlines from the proclamation:

  • Tariffs will be 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium. 
  • Tariffs will be put in place in 15 days times. 
  • Mexico and Canada will be exempted for an undetermined period, depending on NAFTA progress, 
  • Trump said: "I have a feeling we're going to make a deal of NAFTA" (no deal, NAFTA will be scraped and tariffs may apply).
  • Says the US may have to raise tariffs on other countries if Canada and Mexico excluded; capacity targets must be maintained.
  • Reciprocal taxes to be imposed.
  • Trump said: "Military subsidies and spending will factor into our decisions on tariff exemptions."
  • Lighthizer will handle discussions with countries seeking exemptions.

Market reactions

Initially, VIX rallied through 17, Gold was bid to 1322 while stocks slip 2726 in the S&P and  DJIA fell to 24779. USD/JPY dropped to 106.12. Then we saw a reversal as details were vague and the market figured that there will be a lot more to come from all of this, so back to business as usual for now. The benchmarks rallied to make a session high into the close with the S&P and Nasdaq leading the way. 

  • For the close, the S&P index climbed 0.45% or 12.17 points to 2738.97;
  • The Nasdaq added 0.42% or 31.296 points to finish at 7427.945;
  • The Dow put up  0.38% or added 93.85 points to close at 24895.21. 

So what now?

Well, we already knew that Trump’s announcement will cause an in-house ruckus and today's proclamation will only have inflamed tensions with congressional Republicans, many of whom are influential key officials, such as House speaker Ryan, who urged Trump to hold off on sweeping tariffs. The most recent headline on that came with Republican Senator Jeff Flake who says he's introducing a bill to nullify the tariffs. NAFTA and current negotiations with China's Xi will be the markets focus from here and sure to make for a higher VIX for the near term.

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