Markets: What to look out for this week? – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that politics should dominate the start to the week for markets as in China the National People’s Congress is due to begin in Beijing, with Premier Li due to present a draft of his work plan for 2018 (continues to March 20th).

Key Quotes

“Away from politics, the main data releases on Monday will be the final February services and composite PMIs around the globe and the February ISM non-manufacturing in the US. Elsewhere BOJ Deputy Governor nominee's confirmation hearing will begin, while the Fed's Quarles is also due to speak. It's worth also highlighting that EU Council President Donald Tusk may circulate draft negotiating guidelines about the future relationship between the EU and UK on Monday.”

“Tuesday: Tuesday’s diary is a bit quieter by comparison. With nothing of note in Europe, the main focus should be on the US where we are due to receive January factory orders data along with final revisions to durable and capital goods orders. Over at the Fed, Dudley is due to speak a1t 12.30pm GMT.”

“Wednesday: A relatively busy day for data releases with the highlight in the European session being the final revisions to Q4 GDP for the Euro area. UK house price data for February and France trade data will also be released. In the US the main focus should be on the February ADP employment change reading, while final Q4 revisions for nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs are due, as well as the January trade balance reading and consumer credit print. Away from the data, the Fed’s Brainard (12am GMT), Kaplan (1.30am GMT), Dudley (1pm GMT) and Bostic (1pm GMT) are all due to speak, while the Fed will also release the Beige Book. It’s worth noting that late in the evening Japan will release final revisions to Q4 GDP. Brexit will again be a focus with ambassadors from all EU countries excluding the UK due to meet to hold their first discussion on draft guidelines about the future relationship between the UK and EU.”

“Thursday: The big highlight on Thursday will be the ECB meeting at 12.45pm GMT, followed by President Draghi’s press conference. In terms of data, China’s trade stats for February will most likely warrant the closest attention, while January factory orders in Germany and the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading in the US are also due.”

“Friday: It should be an interesting end to the week on Friday. Overnight the main focus will be on the BoJ meeting outcome, however China’s CPI and PPI reports for February will also be closely watched. In Europe January trade data in Germany will be due along with January industrial production reports for Germany, France and the UK. Finally the week ends in the US with the February employment report including the ever important nonfarm payrolls print. Average hourly earnings data will be just as closely watched however. Following that report, the Fed’s Rosengren and Evans will speak at 5.00pm GMT and 5.45pm GMTon monetary policy.”