AUD/USD: unmoved by data this session so far, what next for the week?

• AUD/USD muted on risk events so far.
• AUD/USD looking to the RBA this week and nonfarm payrolls.

AUD/USD hasn't moved over the Caixin Services and has been trading in a tight range with little liquidity out there within a range of 0.7744 and 0.7777.

• China private services PMI for Feb comes in at 54.2 (exp. 54.3).

The Aussie has been subject to some downside on the back of a global trade war in the making but the slide was thwarted by setbacks in the greenback for the same reason. AUD/USD headed to 0.7735 on Friday before a sell-off in the greenback in NY that enabled the Aussie to gather some ground back for a close at 0.7755 and just below the 200D SMA at 0.7787. 

Meanwhile, analysts at Westpac explained that the US dollar mood may prove key for AUD/USD over the week.

"Fed chairman Powell boosted the dollar last week with an optimistic outlook for the economy. This contributed to AUD/USD dipping as low as 0.7713, its weakest point since late December. The February US employment report should be strong again though there will be some nerves around whether the jump in average earnings reported in January is sustained.

If the bullish US economic narrative is maintained as we expect then AUD/USD should chop down to a lower trading range of say 0.7650-0.7800. AUD crosses could be quite lively this week, with close market interest in policy decisions by the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan," the analysts explained.

Key risk events for the Aussie this week?

US Feb non-manufacturing survey (Mon), Australian Jan retail sales, Q4 net exports and public demand, RBA policy decision, NZ dairy auction (Tue), RBA governor Lowe speech, Aust Q4 GDP, Bank of Canada policy decision (Wed), Aust Jan trade balance, China Feb trade balance, ECB policy decision (Thu), China Feb CPI, Bank of Japan policy decision, US Feb employment report (Fri)

AUD/USD levels

There is a bearish bias here leaning towards 0.7680 with eyes now on 0.7637 before the 0.7581 2016-2018 uptrend level. The price is below the  200-DSMA and RSIs are biased down as well. We have previous key highs at 0.7988/91 ahead of the 0.8124/62 (the September 2017 high, the May 2015 high and long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from 2014) fortress.