UK unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3% - TDS
Analysts at TDS are looking for the UK unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3% once again in December (mkt also 4.3%) which would be its 5thconsecutive month sitting at that level, although they see the risks of 4.2% being greater than the risks of a reversal up to 4.4%.
Key Quotes
“For wage growth, we’re looking for ex-bonus wages to hold steady at 2.4% y/y (mkt 2.4%) and for private sector regular pay – the measure the BoE watches most closely – to edge another tenth higher to 2.6% y/y. It’s worth noting that we’ve seen 9 consecutive months of positive m/m growth in ex-bonus wages, which is the longest such run since before the financial crisis.”
“So while the y/y pace of wages is still fairly moderate, momentum is pointing in the right direction. Also today, we have BoE testimony on the IR before the Treasury Committee starting at 2:15pm, featuring Governor Carney and Deputy Governors Broadbent, Haldane, and Tenreyro.”