US retail sales to rise 0.1% in January - TDS

Analysts at TDS expect US retail sales to rise 0.1% in January, held down by motor vehicle sales.

Key Quotes

“Light-weight auto and truck sales retraced to 17.0m from 17.8m, pointing to a sizeable decline in motor vehicle and parts sales. Gasoline station receipts will likely see a boost from higher gasoline prices. But aside from that, we expect a relatively modest 0.3% rise in the control group (excluding auto, gasoline station, food services and building material sales) that maps most directly into GDP tracking.”

“Risks are generally to the downside following the strength seen in the prior months. But with consumer spirits still running high and the labor market showing continued strength, a solid Q1 is still in the cards. Our forecast is consistent with a moderate deceleration in Q1 real PCE to slightly below 3%.”