When are Aussie retail sales/trade and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Aussie retails sales overview

The calendar is a busy one for the Aussie today and we start with international trade data and retail sales for the month of December. All data are scheduled for a 00:30GMT.at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK and 00:30GMT.

We are looking for surprises ahead of the RBA and casting minds back to Nov retail sales, they surged 1.2%  and arrived higher than the expectations. However, the ABS was attributing some of the upside surprises to the launch of Apple’s iPhone X plus a surge in spending linked to Black Friday sales, previously very much a US phenomenon (post-Thanksgiving) as noted by analysts at Westpac. "As a result, the consensus is for a -0.2% pullback (Westpac -0.3%). We will also see the Q4 inflation-adjusted retail sales estimate, with the median forecast 1.0% q/q, Westpac 0.6%."

We then look to trade numbers where Australia posted large trade surpluses in late 2016 and H1 2017 but slipped back to deficit in Oct and Nov (-A$0.6bn). According to the analysts at Westpac, the December should be stronger, with Westpac looking for a 4.5% rise in exports, driven by iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas. "Both volumes and prices should have risen. If imports rise only slightly then the trade position should swing back to a A$0.7bn surplus. The consensus is less upbeat, on 0.2bn, so the net impact on AUD/USD could be limited."

How could retail sales affect AUD/USD? 

Technicals lean bearish below 0.8000. The price is now below the 200-month SMA located around the midpoint of the 0.80 handle and pressure is building below there bringing in the January 9 and10 lows at 0.7809 into sight ahead of the 200 D SMA at 0.7739. However, monthly RSI remains with a bullish bias although the price is unable to find traction towards 0.81 handle.

Key notes:

AUD/USD analysis: RBA monetary policy decision up next

AUD/USD weak near 0.7900 on risk aversion, ahead of RBA

About Aussie Retail sales:

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.