US: NFP could very well be higher than expected - Rabobank

Data wise, we are still in 2017 as most data releases will be about the end of 2017 rather than the beginning of 2018 and the most important figure looked at today will be the US non-farm payrolls, according to analysts at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Given that yesterday’s US ADP private payroll figure came in higher than expected (250K vs the Bloomberg consensus of 190K), today’s US non-farm payroll data could very well be higher than expected as well (the current Bloomberg consensus is 190K). However, it is becoming increasingly more important to analyse multiple US job market figures in relation with each other rather than focusing on a single figure.”

“Two figures released today will likely also be watched. The first is the US unemployment rate, the second is the growth of average hourly wages in the US (the prior figure was 2.5% y-o-y). The latter is important because US job market data might not be painting a picture that is as clear as the market is expecting. Indeed, more people are finding jobs. But is the labor market really tightening? And if so, why aren’t we seeing that in wage growth? Today’s figures might shed some more light.”