North Korea: Change of strategy? - Rabobank

Kim Jong Un’s recent New Year’s speech, which had a softer tone towards the US and included openness to talks with South Korea, might be less about a change of heart than about change of strategy, suggests the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Namely, it seems more likely that Kim’s strategy has moved to create a wedge between the US and South Korea by moving (ever so slightly) closer to the latter. The speech is of course well timed as the US and South Korea will officially start the re-negotiating of the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) today.”

“The likely outcome of the KORUS negotiations will likely be an amendment that is large enough for Trump to claim a victory in successfully re-negotiating the deal, although small enough to not have a truly meaningful impact. Nevertheless, negotiations are always delicate and the potential for tensions to rise between the US and South Korea is present. Kim might to be intent to capitalize on this situation, so we caution for over optimism on his softer stance.”