Canada: Poloz speech, national accounts and new home sales data eyed - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that all eyes on Governor Poloz as he takes to the podium at 12:40 ET to discuss what “keeps him up at night.”

Key Quotes

“The Bank will release the speech at 12:25 ET and a formal press conference is scheduled at 13:45 ET. While we expect Poloz to repeat that economic conditions have improved, the topic of his speech likely reflects ongoing concerns over household debt, labour market slack and NAFTA uncertainty.”

“On the data front we are scheduled to receive Nov home sales, Oct new house prices and Q3 national balance sheet and financial flow accounts. Home sales will be watched for any rush of buyers trying to circumvent new mortgage regulations and further signs of stabilization in the Toronto housing market. For new home prices the market looks for a 0.2% m/m increase, a slight deceleration on a year-ago basis.”

“Meanwhile, national balance sheet accounts will be watched for any stabilization in the household debt-to-income ratio, though we do not think that 50bp of rate hikes will have any significant impact on credit demand.”