US: Expect a steady 0.4% increase in November core retail sales - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in November core retail sales (Consensus: 0.4%) of US as with low unemployment and elevated consumer confidence, they expect healthy momentum to continue in Q4.

Key Quotes

“November marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season. Although we expect seasonal factors to absorb most of the outsized sales around the week of Thanksgiving, there could be some upside risk to our core retail sales forecasts. Moreover, an increasing share of online sales (a subcomponent of core retail sales) suggests this component could show an outsized gain.”

“For noncore components, auto sales were likely a drag reflecting weaker-thanexpected light vehicle sales in November. Although the underlying pace appears steady, the replacement demand following the recent hurricanes appears to have largely subsided. Excluding autos, our forecast is 0.8% m-o-m (Consensus: 0.6%), reflecting some boost from gasoline station sales as gas prices increased notably during November. Altogether, we expect aggregate retail sales to have increased 0.4% m-o-m in November (Consensus: 0.3%).”