Looking for a surprise in New Zealand’s quarterly labour market figures - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ explained that there is always the potential for surprise in New Zealand’s quarterly labour market figures, with the Q3 numbers out today. 

Key Quotes:

"For what it’s worth, we see solid labour force growth being matched by a rebound in employment (after Q2’s surprising fall), leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.8%. However, it is developments on the wage front that may get the most attention."

"The quarter will incorporate the impact of the Government’s settlement with care and support workers, which could potentially boost headline wage inflation by 0.3-0.4%pts in the quarter."

"The more important question though is whether there has been any spill-over to other sectors, which would seem to be the risk. When we consider this, together with the new Government’s policy platform (including future minimum wage hikes and workplace relations reforms) and ongoing difficulties finding skilled staff, it does appear as though the wage growth pendulum is set to finally start to shift a little higher."