BoE: A 7-2 or 8-1 vote looks most likely - ING

Analysts at ING explain that so far this year, two MPC voters, Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders, have voted for BoE rate hikes and over the summer, chief economist Andy Haldane seemed close to joining them.

Key Quotes

“Assuming those three members vote in favour of a hike, it's now a question of how big the "core" group of voters will be. This will almost certainly comprise of Governor Carney and Ben Broadbent, and despite previously being viewed as an "arch-dove", Gertjan Vlieghe's hawkish comments on wage growth back in September mean he's likely to follow suit.”

“That makes six, but this could be where the dissent starts. Both Silvana Tenreyro and Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe have signalled they are in no rush to increase rates - the latter saying the timing of a hike is an "open question". That could be enough for at least one of them to dissent on a rate hike vote, although both do agree to the principle of tighter policy.”

“But at the far end of the dovish spectrum sits Dave Ramsden, who when asked whether he was in the group looking to tighten policy over the next few months, said: "I was not part of that majority". This makes it pretty likely that he'll vote against a rate hike this time around.”

“Adding it all together, either a 7-2 or 8-1 vote looks most likely. But anything less could expose divisions amongst the MPC on the need for tighter policy and would signal that further 2018 hikes are far from guaranteed.”