Japan: Polls look promising for Abe – Danske Bank

Abe has probably breathed a sigh of relief, as recent polls have ticked in suggesting that the LDP will win a significant majority, points out the research team at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“The newspaper Mainichi gives the LDP 292 seats in the 465-seat Lower House. Adding Komeito’s projected 31 seats gives the coalition close to 70% of the seats, slightly more than they held before the house was dissolved. Party of Hope and the CDP currently stand to win only 48 and 47 seats, respectively. If the polls remain unchanged, it would put Abe on track to be re-elected as chairman of the LDP in September 2018 and thus likely to become the longest-ever serving Japanese prime minister.”

“With as many as 43% of voters preferring not to see Abe stay as prime minister and an approval rating of only 37%, this outcome could appear somewhat puzzling, though. Lack of any clear alternative is part of the explanation. That said, the majority of voters have still not decided who to vote for, which means there is still uncertainty over the election outcome.”