UK: Mixed labor market data - BBH

Analysts at BBH note that the UK reported mixed labor market data as September job claims rose 1.7k -2.8k in August, while employment rose 94k vs. 148k expected.  

Key Quotes

“The unemployment rate was steady at 4.3%, as expected, while average weekly earnings rose 2.2% y/y vs. 2.1% expected.  Retail sales will be the next key reading tomorrow, which are expected to fall -0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m ex-auto fuel).  With inflation running around 3%, real wages are falling and likely to hurt consumption.”

“The market has almost fully priced in a hike by the BOE November 2.  Sterling has been trading a bit soft since yesterday’s testimony in parliament by BOE MPC members.  Governor Carney stuck to his view that rates would be adjusted in the coming months, but Deputy Governor Ramsden and new MPC member Tenreyro leaned more dovish.”