Italy: Getting closer to a new electoral law - ING

According to Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist at ING, while addressing the issue of dis-homogeneity between chambers which affects the current Italian law, the new one would do little to improve governability, in their view and they expect intensified parliamentary activity to have it approved by early November.

Key Quotes

“After a parliamentary acceleration, made possible by the resort to confidence votes, the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved a new electoral law last Thursday. The new law was supported by the PD and AD (its centrist allies in the current government) and by opposition parties Forza Italia and the Northern League. It was opposed by the 5-Star Movement, by Fratelli d’Italia and by MDP, the party which was originated by the split of the leftist side of the PD last February. Starting this week, the new law will undergo examination by the Senate and, eventually, the vote of the Senate between end-October and the first week of November.”

“A mixed system

The new electoral law, which will be applied to both branches of the Italian parliament, foresees a mixed system, with two-thirds of the seats allotted with a proportional system, and one-third with a first-past-the post system, with blocked lists. It introduces the same entry thresholds in both houses, which are set at 3% of votes for single lists and at 10% for coalitions. The possibility of forming coalitions for the first-past-the post part is the most relevant factor of the new system. However, coalitions will be loose in nature, as the law does not foresee the presentation of a common programme nor the indication of a common PM candidate. Still, the possibility to form coalitions will by itself affect the shaping-up of the campaign in view of the 2018 vote.”

“Any impact on governability?

In our view, the introduction of the new law would not impart a dramatic change in terms of post-election governability.

The good news is that the new law would manage to harmonize the electoral system in the two Chambers, one of the main drawbacks of the so-called Consultellum, the current asymmetric system which emerged from two separate rulings of the Constitutional Court. As dis-homogeneity within the Consultellum was possibly the main concern of President Mattarella, we believe that the new scheme approved at the Chamber of Deputies might represent for him an acceptable compromise. Should the law also pass in the Senate in its current version, we believe it would not meet any resistance from the Italian Presidency.”

“Next steps

The new law will now have to pass the test of the Senate, after which a full month will be needed to re-design constituencies. If no amendment will be made in the discussion, the vote of the Senate should mark the final approval of the law. Press reports indicate the intention of the government coalition to have the electoral law approved before the final vote of the Senate on the Budget law. This would impose an acceleration of parliamentary works and a possible vote of the law at the Senate in the first week of November at the latest. This would leave the parliamentary approval of the budget in December as the last relevant passage of the current legislature.

President Mattarella would then be in the position to dissolve the parliament early in January 2018. According to the Italian Constitution, the polling date has to be set at least 45 days and within 70 days after the parliament’s dissolution. Our current best guess is that, should the law be passed by the Senate, elections would take place in the first half of March 2018.”