UK: Its politics all the way – Rabobank

The Daily Telegraph has revealed a fresh poll by ORB International that indicates that 57% of UK voters agree that PM May should remain in office at least until the Brexit negotiations are completed in March 2019, points out the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“The poll that was conducted over the weekend, lent further strength to May’s position followed talk at the end of last week that up to 30 Tory MPs were calling for her to step aside.”

“The issue of the Northern Ireland border are expected to be discussed at today’s round of Brexit talks in Brussels. Yesterday PM May indicated that her government had begun “drafting joint principles on preserving the Common Travel Area, and associated rights” and repeated that there would not be any physical infrastructure at the border after Brexit.  Further progress on this issue, along with the size of the divorce bill and the rights of EU citizens has to be made before the EU will agree to commence trade talks.”

“Yesterday, the UK government published white papers on future trade and customs arrangements which include contingency plans in case the UK leaves the EU without a trade agreement.  May also confirmed that the UK would remain subject to the rulings of the European Court of Justice during a planned two year transition period after the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.”

“Sterling has recovered some poise after last week’s politics induced sell off.  This morning’s 1.9% y/y rise in the BRC like-for-like sales index will refocus attention on the risk of a BoE rate hike in early November.  That said, the BRC did warn that consumers are steering away from purchases of big ticket given the higher costs of food and clothing.”