UK: Manufacturing production to post -0.3% decline in August - TDS

July saw the first m/m gain in UK manufacturing production so far in 2017, but analysts at TDS are looking for that to at least partially reverse in August with a -0.3% m/m decline (mkt +0.3%), especially given the drop in motor vehicle production during the month.

Key Quotes

“Construction output also isn’t looking very promising for August. While our model is pointing to a decent gain on the back of lagged mortgage approvals and house price growth, the construction PMI has been falling since June and our model has in fact been overestimating construction output for most of this year. So we look for another month of falling output at -0.5% (mkt -0.2%), roughly in line with the average decline over the last four months. The trade data for August is also out today, and markets are looking for the visible trade balance to come in little changed from the prior month at -£11.2bn.”