AUD/NZD: watching iron ore for a retest of 1.1200? - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for the Antipodean cross and rates.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/NZD 1 day: Forming a base at 1.0830 for now. Whether it holds this week will depend partly on iron ore’s behaviour.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A retest of the 1.1200 area seen in April is possible if iron ore’s rally since mid-June continues and global risk sentiment remains elevated. (4 Sep)

AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 2.19%, the 10yr around 3.01%.

AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold for some time) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 3yr swap rates in a 1.8% to 2.3% range, as long as core inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (8 Aug).

NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open down 1bp at 2.32%, the 10yr down 1bp at 3.28%, in response to AU and US interest rates movement overnight.

NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBNZ outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 2yr swap rates in a 2.1% to 2.6% range, as long as inflation remains below 2%.  Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates."