UK: Expect a modest recovery in trade deficit – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a modest recovery in the UK’s headline trade deficit, though caution that these figures are highly volatile.

Key Quotes

“The global goods trade balance deteriorated by around £1.3bn between April and May, with the majority of the weakening due to the underlying deficit (as opposed to erratic items or oil). This, in turn, was due to a combination of weaker exports and stronger import growth during the month. However, in general terms, exports growth has been strengthening over the past year and on a 3mma basis the annual rate is currently running at over 7% – its highest since end-2015.”