BOE to maintain optionality on a rate rise should momentum improve in H2 – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs offer their insights on BOE’s Super Thursday, with the policy decision and Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) due to be released at 1100GMT today.

Key Quotes:

“We expect the MPC to vote 5-3 in favour of unchanged Bank Rate tomorrow and to announce that it will end the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) in February 2018.

In the MPC's updated Inflation Report projections, we expect a GDP growth downgrade and a largely unchanged inflation forecast.

In the press conference, we expect Governor Carney to convey that the MPC's forecasts of slack and inflation are broadly unchanged from the levels expected in May, thereby maintaining optionality on a rate rise should momentum improve in the second half of the year.”