When is the RBA and how could it affect AUD/USD?
RBA interest rate decision review
While all expect the RBA to stay on hold at 1.5%, this meeting, due at 04:30GMT, will be of particular interest given the strength of the Aussie and recent coalescing between the Fed and other key Central Banks.
"The RBA is expressing no sense of urgency to change the cash rate from 1.5%. Governor Lowe recently noted that a weaker currency would be more helpful, but this is a low-level protest and one the markets duly shrugged-off," explained analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, adding, "speculators have been drawn to the Aussie, which for the sixteen sessions beginning July 7, has only declined four times."
How could the RBA decision/statement affect AUD/USD?
While the RBA policy decision is expected to be on hold, a particular focus will on the RBA's outlook for the strength of the Aussie, especially considering the shift in the outlook for the US dollar. With AUD/USD at and around the 0.8000 psychological level, traditional jawboning of the currency could come into play in today's meeting. Usually, that would equate to offers and in this case, potentially be exposing the 0.7750 Feb/March resistance levels today.
To the upside, the monthly 50 ma at 0.8073, beyond the YTD high of 0.8065, should draw some attention on anything hawkish as an outcome, especially should there not be any concern for the value of the Aussie from the RBA. 0.8163 is the May 2015 high thereafter.
Key notes
AUDUSD: Buying dips remains the medium term plan
Will AUD Soar or Sink on RBA?
AUD/USD analysis: waiting for RBA´s monetary policy decision
About the RBA interest rate decision
The RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.