USD/JPY: Rebound stalls near 113.30 post-Japan Govt forecasts

The recovery in USD/JPY from daily lows of 113.15 faltered following the release of the Japanese government economic forecasts, which provided some respite to the Yen bulls.

USD/JPY eyes on Treasury yields ahead of US CPI

The spot recovered losses and now awaits fresh direction amid a broadly suppressed US dollar, as Treasury yields lack momentum ahead of the US CPI release. The longer-maturity Treasury yields rallied a day before, in response to the Fed Chair Yellen’s comments on balance sheet normalization.

The US yields now look forward to the US inflation figures for future trends, as they usually mimic the inflation expectations. Also, the CPI data will provide fresh light on the next policy move likely to be adopted by the Fed in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the latest move down in the spot can be mainly attributed to resurgent JPY demand, after the Japanese government upped FY 2017 forecasts for consumption, capex and housing.

USD/JPY Technical levels                 

A break below 113 (round figure) would open doors for 112.86 (neckline support). A break lower would yield a bearish MACD cross and trigger a sell-off in the pair to 112.50 - 112.32 levels. To the top, a daily close above 10-DMA would shift risk in favor of a re-test of the recent high near 114.50 levels.