US: Warning signs of a recession? - Natixis

The developments that have announced all recessions since the 1980s in advance (with a sufficient lead) in the United States are present at the moment, suggests Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis.

Key Quotes

“Among the list of variables that potentially are leading indicators of recessions, we see that three developments have announced all the recessions since the 1980s. They are:

• A decline in profitability;
• A decline in share buybacks;
• A flattening of the yield curve.”

“If we look at the present period, we should note that these three developments are present.”