6 Feb 2014
Flash: Watch for Aus Dec ratail sales, trade balance - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Australia’s busy week continues with Dec retail sales and trade balance at 00.30 GMT, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"After an extended period of weakness, retail trade began to revive in Aug 2013, starting a run of four straight months with gains of 0.5% or more. Notably, the RBA on Tue mentioned “slightly firmer consumer demand” over summer so it should be happy if consensus of another 0.5% gain is confirmed. Westpac looks for 0.6%, with surveys of retailers in Dec mostly positive. Also due is the inflation-adjusted Q4 retail trade total, which we see up 1.1% q/q, helping underpin Q4 GDP due next month."
"AUD will react mostly to the monthly retail sales headline though there will also be some interest in the trade balance, which often surprises. Consensus is –A$200mn but Westpac looks for an improvement from -$118mn in Nov to $50mn in Dec, which would be the first surplus since Dec 2011. We assume a 2.1% m/m rise in imports, 2.7% gain in exports, with the weaker AUD boosting both and exports helped by seasonal demand for gold offsetting a slight pullback in iron ore."
Key Quotes
"After an extended period of weakness, retail trade began to revive in Aug 2013, starting a run of four straight months with gains of 0.5% or more. Notably, the RBA on Tue mentioned “slightly firmer consumer demand” over summer so it should be happy if consensus of another 0.5% gain is confirmed. Westpac looks for 0.6%, with surveys of retailers in Dec mostly positive. Also due is the inflation-adjusted Q4 retail trade total, which we see up 1.1% q/q, helping underpin Q4 GDP due next month."
"AUD will react mostly to the monthly retail sales headline though there will also be some interest in the trade balance, which often surprises. Consensus is –A$200mn but Westpac looks for an improvement from -$118mn in Nov to $50mn in Dec, which would be the first surplus since Dec 2011. We assume a 2.1% m/m rise in imports, 2.7% gain in exports, with the weaker AUD boosting both and exports helped by seasonal demand for gold offsetting a slight pullback in iron ore."